Political parties from both sides of the Irish border plan to meet on Wednesday for the first “all-island dialogue” on Brexit, together with business groups.
The meeting — or “Enda Kenny’s big conversation”, as some sceptical observers of the Irish prime minister have named it — is an attempt by the Irish government to provide a public forum to discuss what the Britain’s exit from the EU means for Ireland, politically, economically, socially and culturally.
It will be attended by the republic’s political parties and some from Northern Ireland, civil society groups, business lobbies and local authorities from the regions around the border. “It is a listening exercise, throwing open the floor to a lot of different voices who may have a stake in Brexit,” says an Irish official involved in the preparations.
But the event looks set to be less a national Irish conversation than a conversation among Irish nationalists. Arlene Foster, first minister of Northern Ireland and leader of the Democratic Unionist party, the main voice of Ulster unionism, will not be attending. It is a “grandstanding exercise” for “remoaners”, says Ms Foster, whose party supports leaving the EU.
Irish officials say the unionist absence is unfortunate but does not detract from the usefulness of the exercise. “This thing [Brexit] is so vast we have to start somewhere,” says another official. Moreover, a conversation among Irish nationalists about Brexit is not illegitimate. “What happens in the north and in Britain because of Brexit will affect us profoundly,” says Frank Feighan, a member of the Irish senate for Mr Kenny’s centre-right Fine Gael party.
The fact that the event is taking place reflects the deep uncertainty in Dublin on how to respond to the UK’s referendum result. Brexit was greeted by bafflement and dismay across much of Ireland. The two countries joined the then European Economic Community on the same day in 1973; they have been on the same side on many issues, such as the single market and the sanctity of national sovereignty on issues such as taxation.
At least until June 23, relations between Ireland and Britain had never been better. That relationship on the diplomatic and political level became possible because of shared EU membership. When Northern Ireland descended into political violence in the early 1970s, Irish and British barely knew each other. Their common forum for building a constructive relationship turned out to be Brussels — not least because the EU gave Ireland equal status to the UK.
The fear in Dublin is that Brexit threatens the Anglo-Irish relationship on almost every front. One is trade: €1.2bn in goods and services cross the Irish Sea every week. The other, which is likely to get well aired at the civic dialogue, is the future of Northern Ireland. One reason Mr Kenny wanted to have such a forum is because of the alarm among many in the north about life after Brexit.
Northern Ireland voted 56 per cent to 44 per cent to remain in the EU. Irish nationalist voices in Belfast insist this democratic majority must be heard in the Brexit negotiations. There is a lot of sympathy for this view in Dublin. Moreover, the Good Friday Agreement, which has been described as in effect Northern Ireland’s constitution, takes it as read that Ireland and the UK would be in the EU permanently.
The civic dialogue is unlikely to ease any Irish fears over the UK exit from the EU. The real question is whether Mr Kenny can ever develop an all-island position on Brexit, given the truculent unionist position. “It’s going to be very difficult to do this, because by definition it will involve two stakeholders with diametrically opposed views on Brexit,” says Aidan Regan, a political scientist at University College Dublin.
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