Nobody can say they were not warned. Donald Trump promised a Muslim visa ban, to put “America first” on trade and nominate conservatives to the Supreme Court. That is what he is doing. He also said he would “wipe out Isis” and build a wall on the Mexico border. Expect announcements on those in the near future. Ditto for big tax cuts and sweeping deregulation. What you see is what you get.
Though he may never have read one, Mr Trump has always been an open book. If you want to prepare for the next four years, you should internalise the Trump manual.
The master key is Mr Trump’s management philosophy. Now in his eighth decade, Mr Trump is not about to change how he does business. His first rule is never admit to a mistake. Mr Trump will dig his heels in rather than apologise. Even casual errors will accidentally become formal policy. It is unclear, for example, whether Mr Trump deliberately avoided mentioning Jews in his statement on Holocaust Memorial day. Yet he is now committed to not mentioning them.
Making Mexico pay for the border wall may have been a campaign throwaway line. Ensuring it does is now the chief goal of US-Mexico relations. It left Enrique Peña Nieto, Mexico’s president, with little choice but to cancel his Washington trip last week.
For Mr Trump, the costs of sticking to a bad policy will almost always be lower than admitting to error.
The second rule is make critics pay. If you cross Mr Trump he will hit back 10 times harder. Since he now occupies the most important bully pulpit in the world, this has consequences — as US government employees are finding out. Last week Mr Trump fired Sally Yates, the acting attorney-general, for declining to argue in court for Mr Trump’s badly drafted temporary ban on issuing visas to citizens from seven Muslim-majority countries. He accused her of betrayal rather than a professional difference of opinion.
Mr Trump’s spokesman called on US diplomats to resign rather than register their differences through the State Department’s longstanding “dissent channel”. Pointing out a policy’s weakness is a key duty in any serious government job. Mr Trump has made it clear that he wants cheerleaders not critics.
Foreign leaders, including Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, should be wary. Mr Trump will not hesitate to escalate when challenged. His administration has already singled out Germany for alleged currency manipulation and lambasted Ms Merkel’s decision to take in Syrian refugees. Ms Merkel is rightly treading with great care.
Businesses should also beware. Barely 20 minutes after Dennis Muilenburg, Boeing’s chief executive, defended free trade with China, Mr Trump threatened to cancel the deal to build a new Air Force One. Those banking on the US constitution to constrain the president should make a Plan B.
Mr Trump has made clear he shares Richard Nixon’s view that the president can pick and choose which laws apply to him. From tax audits to eavesdropping, the retaliatory means at Mr Trump’s disposal are vast. The value of whistleblowers has rarely been higher.
The third rule is do whatever it takes to promote the brand. If that means bending reality, or coming up with an alternative one, so be it. What works for the Trump business franchise has vastly greater implications as commander-in-chief. The day after Mr Trump’s inauguration, he told CIA employees that it had stopped raining the moment he began speaking. The meteorologists did not agree.
He also personally called the head of the National Parks Service to instruct him to delete a tweet showing unfavourable side-by-side photos of the thin crowds at his inauguration versus the overflow at Barack Obama’s. It was duly taken down.
These are relatively minor issues. But how will Mr Trump react when government scientists issue their next report on global warming? What will he do when the Bureau of Labor Statistics announces a rise in unemployment? We have yet to digest the enormity of Mr Trump’s waywardness with facts. They say the first casualty of war is the truth. In an age of cyber war, truth is a primary target. When your enemy’s objective is to sow confusion, it is doubly important America’s president has sufficient credibility to refute lies. It is a national security imperative.
Mr Trump is as likely to be a source of wild propaganda as a check on it. Look at his verdict on the 2016 election. Hillary Clinton won almost 3m more votes than Mr Trump. He continues to insist the election was hijacked with between 3m and 5m rigged votes.It is hard to come up with a bigger “alternative fact” than that.
Which brings us to the final rule: pride trumps all else. Because he lost the popular vote, the president cannot shed that nagging urge to counter doubts about the legitimacy of his victory. Liberals can always be relied on to stoke it. The temptation to allege corruption where it does not exist, or to claim the system is rigged, will always haunt Mr Trump. He will thus continually be drawn into casting doubt on the rule of law in the country he leads.
Those who wish to damage America’s standing need not lift a finger. Mr Trump is doing it for them. As Napoleon said: “Never interfere with your enemy while he is making a mistake.”
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