Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party has replaced prime minister Beata Szydlo just hours after the party’s deputies voted down an opposition attempt to unseat her government.
The reshuffle promoted finance minister Mateusz Morawiecki, a former Santander banker, to take charge of the Polish government as it gears up for parliamentary elections in 2019, and comes as Law and Justice (PiS) prepares to push through controversial judicial reforms in the coming days.
Since sweeping to power in 2015, Ms Szydlo’s government has overseen a period of rapid economic growth and rising wages. However, it has also had a series of bruising clashes with the EU on topics ranging from migration to the rule of law, and Beata Mazurek, a PiS spokeswoman, hinted on Thursday evening that the leadership change was partly aimed at improving Poland’s international standing.
“[We can all see] what is happening abroad — how we are perceived, what our relations with partners look like; for what we are supported, for what attacked. How the actions taken not only by the government but also by various social organisations are assessed; the assessment of what happened on November 11 is also diverse. And it had an influence on the decision,” she said, referring to the displaying of far-right slogans at an independence day march in Warsaw last month that earned international criticism.
Despite the change of leadership, analysts expect that Polish politics will continue to be dominated by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the veteran ideologue widely regarded as Poland’s most powerful politician, who founded PiS and handpicked Ms Szydlo as Law and Justice’s candidate for prime minister in 2015.
However, Wawrzyniec Smoczynski, the head of Polityka Insight, a Warsaw-based think-tank, said that Mr Morawiecki — a smooth-talking former banker who entered politics only two years ago — might be seen as a figure capable of mending broken bridges.
“He is one of the relative moderates within the PiS camp, and this is in part what Kaczynski is betting on. It will win him some breathing space in relations with the EU, with the business community and with moderate voters. All of those will have to give Morawiecki the benefit of doubt,” he said.
Despite Poland’s prickly relations with the EU, Ms Szydlo has remained one of the country’s most trusted politicians, and her government enjoys widespread support thanks in part to a series of generous welfare reforms, such as a flagship family subsidy.
However, Ms Szydlo’s future has been the subject of furious speculation in recent weeks, with Mr Kaczynski himself touted as her most likely replacement. But at a meeting with PiS politicians on Monday evening, Mr Kaczynski put forward the possibility of Mr Morawiecki taking the helm, according to a person present, and on Thursday evening a ruling party committee nominated Mr Morawiecki as the new prime minister.
“If Kaczynski had taken over, it would have been the government showing its hardline face. But in choosing Morawiecki, they can continue to hide, this time behind a modernising prime minister,” said Mr Smoczynski. “The redistributive agenda that has dominated the first two years of the PiS government will now be replaced by a narrative about modernisation and economic development.”
The announcement of Mr Morawiecki’s ascent to the premiership comes in the middle of a turbulent few days in Poland’s politics. On Thursday morning, PiS deputies voted down a motion of no confidence in Ms Szydlo’s government lodged by the main opposition party, Civic Platform.
And on Friday, the government is expected to push two reform bills through parliament that will give politicians greater power over the judiciary, which critics claim will undermine the rule of law.
The plans drew tens of thousands of Poles on to the streets in protest when they were first announced this summer, and small-scale demonstrations have begun again in Warsaw in recent days as parliamentary work on the bills has been resumed.
Mateusz Morawiecki: the fast-rising political newcomer
Until March last year, Mateusz Morawiecki was not even an official member of Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party. A year-and-a-half later, he is about to become prime minister.
People who know him describe Mr Morawiecki as an unusual mix: a former banker at ease talking to international investors who during his time at Santander rose to the top of Polish finance; but also a fierce patriot bent on restoring the fortunes of a nation brutalised by 20th-century history.
“Most people didn’t understand when he moved from a financial institution to politics and lost 90 per cent of his salary,” says one colleague. “He did it because he wants to change Poland.”
Mr Morawiecki’s joined the government as minister for economic development in 2015, before adding the post of finance minister last year. In those roles, he has overseen two years of rapid economic growth, as well as a crackdown on VAT fraud. That has helped fund a welfare programme that has secured the government broad popular support, despite fears among economists that it would prove unaffordable.
But as he has taken on ever larger responsibilities within government — a Polish newspaper once dubbed him the “superminister” — tensions have flared between his camp and that of the outgoing premier, Beata Szydlo. The two have fought an increasingly bitter battle for influence both within government and within Poland’s state-run companies.
Mr Morawiecki’s late entry into politics means he does not have such deep roots in the factional politics of PiS as Ms Szydlo or other party rivals. But the support of Jaroslaw Kaczynski — the veteran ideologue and PiS founder who is widely considered Poland’s most powerful politician — was ultimately enough to help him win the post of premier.
“Church, family and Poland: those are the things that link him to Kaczynski,” says one person who has known Mr Morawiekci for many years. “Morawiecki believes in them 100 per cent.”
However, analysts say that Mr Morawiecki’s ambition also makes his future course harder to predict. “Szydlo was an executor of somebody else’s will, she didn’t have personal ambitions beyond that,” says Wawrzyniec Smoczynski, founder of Polityka Insight, a Warsaw-based think-tank.
“Morawiecki is different. He is deferential to Kaczynski but has a longer view in politics. It is much harder to predict where he will be in a few years’ time.”
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