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Bitcoin as a Chinese capital outflow proxy

Markets

Bitcoin as a Chinese capital outflow proxy

The price of bitcoin has been rising in recent weeks — with the cryptocoin currently trading about $671.

All sorts of theories have landed in our inbox regarding what’s fuelling the spike: there’s been a pickup in ransomware incidents; Chinese miners have put aside their differences in the great bitcoin scaling debate and are now committed to supporting efforts to increase the so-called block size; the network is being spammed and backlogged by a multitude of small transactions; or the age-old classic that the dollar is about to collapse.

But there’s a simpler explanation out there too. Courtesy of Paul Mylchreest ADMSI, here’s how bitcoin correlates with the performance of the offshore renminbi:

Not perfect by any stretch but — given China’s bitcoin mining dominance — certainly a worthwhile indicator with which to gauge Chinese dollar stress and/or upcoming RMB depreciation risk.

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