James Carville once famously said: “Show me a candidate who depends on the youth vote and I’ll show you a loser.” Historically, Bill Clinton’s election strategist was dead right, but the dictum may not apply this year. Just as the colour of his skin could conceivably deny Barack Obama the White House, the support of those under the age of 30 could put him there with room to spare.
There are 44m young Americans of the so-called “millennial generation” eligible to vote – about 21 per cent of the electorate. But it is not easy to get a handle on how many of them will cast a ballot. The Student Public Interest Research Group, an activist organisation, has gone so far as to predict a 70 per cent turnout, compared with just under 50 per cent of 2004. That may be high, but polls by Gallup and others all suggest it will split at least 60-40 in Barack Obama’s favour.
With just 11 days to go, by no means all under-30s have settled on their choice – even among those who insist they will definitely vote, such as Kathleen Durkin from Chicago. A former intern at Nato in Brussels to whom foreign policy really matters, she leans a bit more right than left but takes Colin Powell’s endorsement of Mr Obama very seriously because she respects the former secretary of state. But, she adds: “It only makes it harder for me to decide.”
Peak turnout among the under-30s was 55 per cent in 1972, the first election after the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18. That had slipped to about 40 per cent by 2000 but its rise four years ago reflected the intensity of a campaign, held as the war in Iraq became bogged down, that produced a record overall participation.
This year saw a surge in youth interest in the Democratic primaries, much of it generated by enthusiasm for the Obama candidacy. Younger supporters carried him to his critical first victory in the opening Iowa contest and sustained him thereafter, especially in the states holding caucuses rather than fully fledged primaries. Turnout generally was at least double that of four years ago. Some of the crowds he drew, over 70,000 at one open air rally in Portland, Oregon, not exactly a megalopolis, were unprecedented. Just last weekend, 100,000 gathered to listen to him in Kansas City.
His campaign, with more than 700 Youth for Obama chapters, has focused heavily on registering the young to vote. It has helped, too, that the Obama campaign “owns” the internet in ways that the Republican John McCain’s does not. That has clearly helped fundraising from the young (the average overall donation to date, of $86, would not break even a student’s budget) as well as disseminating the political message and organising events.
There have been other official and unofficial deft uses of new media. His campaign was able to insert messages into a popular X-box car racing video game. Rock the Vote, the MTV-based pressure group, says it has registered at least 2.3m new voters, more than double the level of four years ago. On Facebook, Mr Obama has more than 2m “friends”, nearly four times the number of Mr McCain.
Two Obama fans to whom the Financial Times has spoken are Kate Resnevic from Rhode Island and Elaine Crooks from Colorado. Just like the undecided Ms Durkin, they are college graduates now working in Washington and say they will definitely vote. Ms Crooks is registered to vote in suburban Virginia, the other two back home. A 1979 Supreme Court ruling allowed students to register to vote either in their home state or where they attend school, but some obstacles have been thrown in their path.
In both Virginia and Colorado, pivotal swing states, arguments raged over whether the parents of out-of-state students registering on campus would still be able to claim them as dependants for tax purpose (they can); Indiana requires state-issued identification documents to register, which many students do not have; others ask for different proofs of residence, such as utility bills, which prompted Oberlin College in Ohio to issue “receipts” for zero dollars to any undergraduate who asked for them.
Having navigated such obstacles, Ms Crooks is looking forward to November 4, saying: “I like the vibe.” Ms Resnevic has already voted, making up for 2004 when her absentee ballot reached her in Germany too late. The three get most of their political news from the internet, though Ms Durkin wistfully remembers the newspaper and morning coffee regime she used to enjoy in college and in Europe.
None of them is consumed with concerns that the current economic woes will blight their lives in the long term. Ms Crooks says her existing student loans are so “dauntingly high” that she might just as well add the cost of graduate school to them (“At least I won’t be paying any interest on either while I’m there”). Free of student debt thanks to her parents, Ms Resnevic shrugs at the thought of the $100,000 (£62,000, €78,000) she would have had to bear. Ms Durkin, with a master’s degree under her belt and a doctorate under way in her spare time, mostly thinks of the right job in her field of interest.
The first two have medical insurance through their jobs, while Ms Durkin buys hers at $180 a month. Ms Resnevic thinks it is “absurd that healthcare should be a commodity you have to buy. It should be a given. It is not as if everybody has to have a Lamborghini. That’s a luxury item. Healthcare should not be a luxury.” Ms Durkin has her reservations about government-funded healthcare “but if a democracy chooses it, that’s fine by me”.
On race, none is bothered by inter-racial relationships or the prospect of a non-white president. Ms Resnevic notes: “I come from a New England ‘Wasps’ nest’ without much racial diversity, so it never really came up at home. I’m not sure how it would have been received if I’d brought home a black boyfriend.” Ms Crooks’ upbringing was similar. “It was easy to have liberal ideas about race and religion when you grow up in Broomfield, Colorado.” She did have non-white classmates but they were from her socioeconomic class, so “there were just little cultural differences”. Ms Durkin’s mother is a public school teacher on Chicago’s disadvantaged South Side, Mr Obama’s political base, so she grew up in a tolerant home environment. All have friends from different ethnic backgrounds.
Ms Resnevic says her parents are Republican but are leaning towards Mr Obama, adding: “My dad is a dentist and he thinks the McCain tax plan will be devastating for dentists.” Ms Durkin’s father is a “Chicago Democrat”, her mother probably leans a bit to the right, but she remembers both were intrigued by the 1992 candidacy of the independent Ross Perot. Ms Crooks’ father is a Republican but she thinks she has persuaded her mother to vote for Mr Obama this time, as she did for Al Gore.
Sarah Palin incites derision and contempt. “Her lack of respect for modern education and women’s rights are scary,” declares Ms Crooks, while Ms Resnevic adds: “It makes me so sad, as a female, to see her making such a fool of herself.” Ms Durkin has more regret; “I was so gung-ho for John McCain until I became better acquainted with Sarah Palin. Any hopes I had that the GOP would cater to moderates went out of the window.”
One Harvard pollster estimates conservatively that if the Democrat wins the youth vote “big”, it could translate into an extra 1-2 percentage points in the overall electorate.
That remains to be seen. Just as citizens shy away from telling pollsters they harbour racial prejudice – if they do, they would never vote for a black Democratic candidate anyway – so pollsters find it hard to get an accurate handle on the youth vote, both in its preferences and the likelihood of its casting a ballot on November 4.
One difficulty is that perhaps more than one-third of young Americans only use mobile phones, for which there is no directory, though some pollsters are compiling cellular databases. A second is that the screening-questions that pollsters use often disqualify the young, especially if they have never voted before. So whereas the intentions of white working-class single mothers earning $30,000 a year are known precisely, those of the under-30s remain a bit of a mystery.
Michael Bloomfield, a Democratic pollster with the Mellman Group, says there “is no question that as demographics change, polling methods have to be adjusted”. But he adds: “It is a lot easier to vote, to vote early and to register now” – a development possibly of sea-change proportions. Mail-in ballots, he explains, used to favour Republicans. But the returns this year on early voting, which the Obama campaign has emphasised in its appeals to the young and minorities, suggest a Democratic tide.
Ms Resnevic, her ballot already cast, is part of that early wave. If she and the other two young women are any guide, many conventional electoral demographics could be rendered moot.
WHITE HOUSE ONLINE: AN INTERACTIVE RETURN FOR FDR’S FIRESIDE CHAT
Barack Obama has used the power of the internet to transform the way election campaigns are run – and if he wins the White House next month he is thought likely to use the web to transform the presidency, writes Rebecca Knight.
Political observers predict Mr Obama, if elected, will convert his election strategy into a governing strategy, using the internet to communicate directly with the public without the filter of the mainstream media and harnessing technology to expand political participation.
The Obama campaign has created and nurtured an online community of followers through its use of social networking websites. Its e-mail communications not only solicit donations but offer supporters glimpses into the campaign’s strategy sessions and direct them to local rallies and other gatherings.
Expectations are especially high among young voters, many of whom have become engaged in a presidential election for the first time. “Certainly with young people whose political engagement is facilitated and encouraged by technology, there will be higher expectations on feedback, accountability and responsiveness,” says Kathryn Montgomery, president of the Washington-based Center for Media Education. “I would expect voters to want to continue to be involved.”
Andrew Rasiej, co-founder of the Personal Democracy Forum, which studies the intersection of technology and politics, foresees an Obama presidency using the internet the way Franklin Delano Roosevelt (left) used radio. FDR used his fireside chats to reach living rooms at critical moments of his presidency, urging Americans to support his New Deal measures to revive the Depression economy. “This is a revolutionary opportunity to re-engage the American public in not only democracy but civic life itself,” says Mr Rasiej.
He envisages online forums where the public could comment on pending legislation, YouTube town hall-style meetings where citizens could question the president and he would answer on video, and official White House bloggers for big policy issues.
Mr Obama’s supporters – who according to one Democratic strategist represent “a built-in focus group and support network” – have over the past year received constant and direct communication from him and his campaign. Many may wish that feeling of involvement to continue.
“His supporters have been so intricately involved and felt so empowered that they feel a personal connection to him and ownership of his presidency,” says Mr Rasiej. “If you’re used to a campaign that’s sharing information with you regularly and trusting you to distribute it for them, then you’ll expect the same once the candidate becomes president.”
Any direct interaction between president and citizens would be a dramatic improvement on the status quo, according to Thomas Gensemer, managing partner at Blue State Digital, the company managing the web technology for Mr Obama. “Right now the White House comes online with a Saturday morning radio address and occasional press briefings,” he says. “Any act of direct communication will be transformational.”
GRANDCHILD CAMPAIGN: SCHLEP IN SEARCH OF FLORIDA SWING
It will not be known until next month whether the “Great Schlep” – an effort in which young Jews have been making a pilgrimage to Florida to “educate” their reluctant grandparents about Barack Obama – has worked. But the buzz at least suggests it might be a success, writes Rebecca Knight.
The Schlep was organised by the Jewish Council for Education and Research, a pro-Obama group. Its video, fronted by Sarah Silverman, the comic, has been watched by millions; hundreds of thousands have downloaded a talking-points guide. Ms Silverman urges viewers to “schlep over to Florida” and convince their grandparents to vote Obama.
Jews comprise about 5 per cent of voters in Florida, a swing state, and tend to vote reliably Democrat. But some have expressed unwillingness to support Mr Obama because of the false assumption that he is Muslim.
Ms Silverman says grandchildren could deploy a little moral blackmail. “If they vote for Barack Obama, they’re gonna get another visit this year,” she said. “If not, let’s just hope they stay healthy till next year.”
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