Boris Johnson has been propelled towards Downing Street with the backing of Tory Eurosceptic MPs, who believe they have a blood oath from the prospective prime minister that he will take Britain out of the EU on October 31, with or without a deal.
But while Mr Johnson’s “do or die” pledge might help him into Downing Street, Eurosceptics do not fully trust a man who wavered on whether to back Leave in 2016 and ultimately supported Theresa May’s Brexit withdrawal deal on March 29.
“Of course we trust him — for now,” said one of the self-styled “Spartans” — the hardcore of about 30 Conservative MPs who continued to reject Mrs May’s “crazy” deal until the bitter end. “If he lets us down he will have a Spartan spear to contend with.”
Their faith in Mr Johnson may be tested to breaking point in the autumn if he becomes prime minister and begins the task of putting campaign promises and combative rhetoric into practice.
Mr Johnson has not been one of the “long marchers” like Bill Cash or John Redwood who have devoted their careers to the Eurosceptic cause and the study of obscure texts from Brussels.
At the moment they [Brexiters] are convinced they are going to get a no deal — it’s their preferred option. If they don’t get that and they say we have been betrayed, then that gives Farage oxygen
Rather he was a polemicist journalist for the Daily Telegraph in Brussels and now writes a pungent Eurosceptic column for the newspaper. But when it came to the crunch of the 2016 referendum he wavered.
Mr Johnson famously drafted two columns — one supporting Remain, one supporting Leave — before making the decision to front the Vote Leave campaign. Ahead of the vote he told friends that he was “veering around like a supermarket trolley”.
“He wasn’t an Outer at all,” said Nicholas Soames, a pro-EU Tory MP. “He made up his mind at the last minute which way to jump.” Many Tory MPs believe Mr Johnson backed Leave to win the hearts of party activists, boosting his career prospects.
He admitted to the Financial Times in 2013 he was not sure if he would vote for Brexit: “The real problem is the political signal that it sends, particularly the signal that it sends to foreign investors,” he says. “That’s why I hesitate.”
Mr Johnson painted his version of Brexit in primary colours; he took little interest in the details, even when he was foreign secretary, although he quit in protest at Mrs May’s Chequers plan.
David Davis, another Eurosceptic veteran and former Brexit secretary, did not bother to discuss details of Brexit with Mr Johnson and was scathing about his ministerial colleague in private, referring to him as a “stupid c***” on one occasion.
The so-called “Spartans” — who take their name from the 300 soldiers who held out against a vast Persian army at the Battle of Thermopylae — are determined that if Mr Johnson makes it to Number 10 he does not sell them out.
Some are engaged in a pedagogical exercise to talk Mr Johnson through how the disruption of a no-deal exit can be managed and why the Irish backstop — enshrined in Mrs May’s withdrawal treaty — must be erased.
“His strength is in his leadership and his ability to communicate,” said one pro-Leave Tory MP. “We are helping him to underpin that.” Another said that the Spartans had been “getting to know Boris” since he quit as foreign secretary last July.
Some Eurosceptic MPs fear Mr Johnson could come under the sway of pro-EU Tories who want him to make a few modest tweaks to Mrs May’s deal — through changes to the non-binding political declaration — then try to push it through the Commons.
The Spartans, who have the power to defeat a Johnson Brexit deal with Labour support, are having none of it. “Boris will have to come up with something completely new,” said Jacob Rees-Mogg, leader of the pro-Brexit European Research Group.
The ERG backed Mr Johnson only after he was asked to guarantee Britain would leave the EU on October 31 “come hell or high water”. Tory MP Mark Francois said the reply was: “Unequivocally, yes.”
Given the lack of time available to renegotiate Mrs May’s deal in Brussels, many ERG members believe that a no-deal exit — the “clean break” some hardcore Eurosceptics favour — is becoming increasingly inevitable.
A total of 34 Tory MPs opposed Mrs May’s deal on March 29 — its third defeat. But some of those who reluctantly backed the prime minister on that occasion, including Mr Rees-Mogg, are now back in the Spartan camp.
Gillian Keegan, a pro-EU Tory MP, said that if Mr Johnson tried to postpone Brexit or secured only minor changes to Mrs May’s deal, the ERG could turn on him and feed support for Nigel Farage’s Brexit party.
“At the moment they are convinced they are going to get a no deal — it’s their preferred option,” she said. “If they don’t get that and they say we have been betrayed, then that gives Farage oxygen.”
Mr Soames said Mr Johnson was heading for trouble. “None of this is deliverable on the timescale,” he said, arguing that it was not technically possible for Britain to leave the EU on October 31. “They are peddling a deceit,” he said.
But Andrew Bridgen, a staunch Eurosceptic, said Mr Johnson would deliver Brexit because he was a “political realist”. He said: “Either we leave or it’s the end of the Conservative party.”
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